IFCN asked: Is Russia moving from 2nd largest dairy importer to self sufficiency?
This hypothesis is falsified as the impact on the Russian dairy sector, especially on demand, during COVID-19 pandemic showed a different pattern than during the financial crisis in 2009.
Similarity of the both events is that the devaluation was around 20% and the GDP per capita showed a negative impact (-5% and -10% respectively).
But… during the COVID-19 pandemic the dairy demand and dairy imports have shown a positive development. Main driver for higher consumption and imports was the shift in demand pattern (+15% higher imports in butter and cheese vs. 2019) as well as the travel restrictions.
Russian citizens weren’t allowed to travel abroad and had more money to spend on other items like food. Additionally, the image of the dairy sector got refreshed and people are showing more trust in dairy products.
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